Quantitative
Katana computes its metrics for every company.
- Sector: Marine Transportation
AI screening example · run on October 11, 2026
Shipping stocks that profit
Shipping stocks that profit
from the tanker spike.
Supertanker rates reached about 43 times their early-January level. Katana read the annual reports of all 11 Japanese marine transportation companies, looking for those whose profits move directly with spot rates. It found none.
Background
Tanker rates hit about 43 times January's level.
Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz sent crude tanker rates soaring. Poten & Partners put the rate for a supertanker (VLCC) from the Middle East Gulf to the Far East at $1.3 million a day, about 43 times the roughly $30,000 of early January.
There are not fewer ships. According to Lloyd's List, ships waiting to transfer crude that cannot pass the strait are held in the Gulf of Oman for 7 to 10 days. With supertankers short, shippers split cargoes onto mid-size tankers, lifting their rates too. Every waiting ship is one fewer ship available.
Other freight markets are moving differently. The SCFI container index stood at 3,662 on September 30 after a second weekly drop, and the Baltic Dry Index for bulk carriers fell 7.3% in a week to 2,917 on October 9.
So is there a shipping stock whose profits rise with the tanker spike? We checked the annual reports of 11 Japanese shipping companies with Katana.
01 / Input
The companies we wanted to find.
“Shipping stocks whose profits rise with tanker freight rates: companies that run ocean-going cargo ships and whose shipping revenue moves directly with spot freight rates rather than being fixed by long-term charters.”
We limited the screen to the marine transportation sector, split this profile into two questions entered in English, and had the AI read each annual report.
02 / Conditions
The conditions we applied across Japan.
Qualitative
AI reads each annual report and judges support and counterevidence.
- Does the company operate ocean-going vessels (owned or chartered) for cargo transport as a core business?
- Is a substantial part of its shipping revenue directly linked to spot or short-term market freight/charter rates, rather than fixed under long-term charters or contracts of affreightment?
Ship agency, brokerage, port operations and shipbuilding alone do not count, nor does market exposure mentioned only as a risk or a future plan.
~3,800listed companies
11match the numbers
0AI judged as supported
Katana
read the filings and found none.
03 / Results
None supported. We checked six against the source.
All 11 passed the first question on operating ocean-going ships. On the second, direct exposure to market rates, nine had counterevidence, two need review and none were supported. Most describe their business as built on long-term contracts. Below are six across tankers, dry bulk and containers.
-
Kyoei Tanker
Runs its business mainly on long-term charters of large tankers.Filing ↗
-
Iino Kaiun
States that its stabilizing contracts may forgo profits when the market moves up.Filing ↗
-
NS United Kaiun
Favors long-term contracts for steel raw materials, but runs a certain share of ships on short- and medium-term contracts.Filing ↗
-
Inui Global Logistics
Its shipping profit fell 65% as market rates ran below the previous year.Filing ↗
-
NYK Line
Reports that VLCC rates rose above the prior year as the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed.Filing ↗
-
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines
Ordinary profit fell mainly on lower container freight rates.Filing ↗
These results are from October 11, 2026. Qualitative judgments use the filings available at that time, while quantitative screening uses the latest financial data.
04 / Takeaway
Whether it pays depends on how long high rates last.
The filings produced no supported company. That does not mean tanker spikes never reach shipping stocks. Past ordinary profit tells a different story.
| Company | FY to Mar 2019 | FY to Mar 2020 | FY to Mar 2021 | FY to Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoei Tanker | ¥0.8bn | ¥1.0bn | ¥0.3bn | ¥0.3bn |
| Inui Global Logistics | −¥0.1bn | −¥1.1bn | −¥1.3bn | ¥13.4bn |
| NS United Kaiun | ¥7.8bn | ¥5.5bn | ¥5.5bn | ¥33.4bn |
| Iino Kaiun | ¥4.7bn | ¥3.5bn | ¥6.8bn | ¥20.7bn |
Tanker rates also spiked in October 2019 and in March to May 2020, after US sanctions on China's COSCO and when surplus crude was stored on tankers during COVID. In those two years, Kyoei Tanker, which charters tankers out long-term, earned no more, and Inui, a dry-bulk operator, lost money. The spikes lasted weeks to months and ended before contracts came up for renewal.
In the year to March 2023, after a long boom in dry bulk and containers, profit at NS United Kaiun and Iino Kaiun, both of which describe themselves as built on medium- to long-term contracts, rose three- to sixfold. When high rates last until contracts are renewed, they reach long-term operators too. The one that did not move was Kyoei Tanker, which only charters tankers out long-term.
This tanker spike is the kind that disappears once the Hormuz disruption eases. Whether it reaches profits depends on whether high rates last until each company renews its contracts. Annual reports show which company is exposed to which market, not how long a spike will last.
Ordinary profit is each company's reported result and does not indicate future profit.
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