NVIDIA-related stocks,
across all of Japan.

NVIDIA is the US leader in GPUs, the chips used to train and run AI. Because GPUs handle many calculations at once, they are essential to the data centers that run generative AI.

On August 26, NVIDIA reported revenue of $96.2 billion for May to July 2026, more than double a year earlier, with data centers accounting for $89.0 billion. It expects $108 billion for August to October and reports on November 17 (US time).

On October 21, NVIDIA said contracts with Ibiden and two other companies would raise the capacity for substrates used in its AI computers 2.5 times over three years. It will prepay Ibiden billions of dollars for its Ono plant in Gifu, aiming to triple the plant's capacity, with the added capacity coming online in stages from January to March 2028. Ibiden was the only Japanese company named.

It already shows in Japanese results. Advantest's operating profit rose 146.0% to ¥266.8 billion in July to September, and it raised its full-year forecast to ¥967.0 billion. Ibiden's operating profit rose 84.6% to a record ¥60.1 billion in April to September. On November 4, SAKURA internet raised its full-year forecast, expecting sales from renting out GPUs to grow 2.6 times to ¥20.8 billion.

• Source：NVIDIA second-quarter fiscal 2027 results (Mynavi News, August 28, 2026, in Japanese)
• Source：NVIDIA schedules Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings call for November 17 (Investing.com)
• Source：NVIDIA and supply chain partners expand capacity (NVIDIA Japan blog, October 26, 2026, in Japanese)
• Source：Advantest July to September results (ITmedia Business Online, October 29, 2026, in Japanese)
• Source：Advantest raises its full-year forecast (Nihon Interview Shimbun, October 28, 2026, in Japanese)
• Source：Ibiden April to September results (Kabutan, October 29, 2026, in Japanese)
• Source：SAKURA internet raises its full-year forecast (Minkabu, November 4, 2026, in Japanese)

When NVIDIA reports strong results, related stocks in Japan rally together. But NVIDIA's growth turns straight into sales only at companies that supply it with parts or equipment.

A company that relies on NVIDIA for much of its sales grows when NVIDIA grows, and falls when NVIDIA cuts its orders. Dependence works both ways.

So we used Katana to read the annual reports of companies that name NVIDIA, looking separately, with three questions, for those supplying NVIDIA, those earning from its GPUs, and those developing products with it.

Only Ibiden and Advantest name NVIDIA as a customer in their annual reports. Here they are next to three companies often named as Japanese chip stocks, by PER and growth over the latest year. PER is based on the share price at fiscal year end; Lasertec's year ended June 2026, the others' March 2026.

Advantest's net income more than doubled and Ibiden's rose almost 90%. Yet their PERs sit at the same level as Tokyo Electron and Disco, whose profits grew less than 10%. The shares have not been bid up in line with the profit growth.

Both depend heavily on NVIDIA, which alone is 20.2% of Advantest's sales and 29.4% of Ibiden's. Advantest itself spells out the weight of this concentration in the risk section of its annual report: with sales concentrated among top customers, changes in an individual customer's business or purchasing policy may affect its results more than the change in the market as a whole.

Ibiden lists "a business model secured by contracts" in its management policy. NVIDIA's prepayment of billions of dollars, and tripling capacity from 2028, lock in future orders by contract.

If NVIDIA keeps growing, today's prices for the two are cheap; if its orders fall, 20% to 30% of their sales shakes at once.

Chips have a silicon cycle, swinging between boom and bust every few years. The global chip market shrank 32% in 2001, 12% in 2019 and 8.2% in 2023. The two are no exception: in the year ended March 2024, Advantest's operating profit fell 51% and Ibiden's 34%.

Stocks whose profits rise and fall with the cycle tend to trade at low PERs at the peak of profits and high PERs at the trough. Growing Advantest and Ibiden in the 30s, with flat Tokyo Electron and Disco at 30 to 50 times, fits a market that sees the two companies' profits as a peak.

Some argue AI demand has flattened the wave. World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecasts the global market will grow 90% to $1.51 trillion in 2026, and equipment executives talk of a supercycle. On the other side, Amova Asset Management wrote in September that growing AI demand does not end swings in supply and demand or short business cycles, and Nomura Securities CIO Hiroshi Miyazaki says it is not yet clear whether the cycle has vanished or the roughly four-year cycle has merely been pushed back.

The shares swing hard too. Ibiden raised its full-year forecast on October 29, then hit its daily limit down on October 30, after Intel, a major customer at 18.1% of its sales, gave an outlook below market expectations.

Profits doubled, but the PERs stay at the level of peers that did not grow. Professional chip investors may not expect NVIDIA's orders to keep coming at this pace. Even experts are split on whether AI has truly flattened the cycle. That AI is a great invention is already plain to everyone. But what sets the two companies' share prices is not how polished today's AI is; it is whether NVIDIA's orders keep coming. The greatness of AI may not justify buying chip stocks whose profits look to be growing.

• Source：Semiconductor market returns to growth in 2002 after a 32% decline in 2001 (WSTS, 2002)
• Source：Worldwide semiconductor sales decrease 12% in 2019 (SIA, February 3, 2020)
• Source：Global semiconductor sales decrease 8.2% in 2023 (SIA, February 5, 2024)
• Source：Practical use of PER, part 2 (Rakuten Securities Toushiru, in Japanese)
• Source：Global semiconductor market surges beyond $1.5T in 2026 (WSTS, spring 2026)
• Source：Supercycle talk in chip equipment (Nikkei, in Japanese)
• Source：The silicon cycle in the AI era (Amova Asset Management, September 18, 2026, in Japanese)
• Source：Is there a blind spot in the AI chip boom? (Nomura Securities, in Japanese)
• Source：Ibiden hits limit down on Intel results (Kabushiki Shijo Shimbun, October 30, 2026, in Japanese)