Japanese companies citing rising interest rates as a risk
rose 10% in a single year.

Listed companies naming rising interest rates under Business Risks rose from 421 (12.42%) in FY2017 to 607 (15.54%) in FY2025. In FY2026, 507 of the 2,788 reports filed so far (18.19%) mention it. In the six years through FY2023, under negative rates, the share rose about 0.3 points a year on average; after they ended, it rose 0.73 points in FY2025 and 1.6 points in FY2026 among companies that have already filed.

Among the companies that have already filed for FY2026, the count went from 454 to 497 in a single year, up about 10%. 54 companies added it, and 11 dropped it.

AI read each paragraph mentioning rising interest rates and sorted it by how higher rates reach the company, into the five types below.

1. Higher borrowing costs

2. Weaker customer demand

3. Lower value of assets held (such as bonds)

4. Strain on borrowers and business partners

5. Other (mention only)

* FY2026 is an early count (2,788 reports filed so far, mostly March year-ends).

Higher borrowing costs are the most common, rising from 315 companies in FY2017 to 480 in FY2025, and from 75% to 79% of those mentioning rates. Weaker customer demand comes next (80 companies in FY2025); about half of them (41) are real estate companies, warning that buyers of homes and investment condos will pull back as rates rise. Lower value of assets held (58) is mostly banks holding bonds (42).

By industry, real estate is highest: 51 of 96 companies in FY2017, 83 of 132 (62.9%) in FY2025. Banks (54.9%) and land transport (36.1%) follow. Most of the 22 land transport companies are railways, which fund long-lived investment in tracks and rolling stock with borrowing.

TSE 33 industry groups. Only industries with at least 30 companies in FY2025, sorted by the FY2025 share.

The Bank of Japan ended negative rates in March 2024 and raised its policy rate to about 1.25% on September 18, 2026, the highest since 1995. Bank lending rates have followed: the average rate on new loans under one year reached 1.49% in July 2026. More companies adding rising rates to their risk sections fits that shift.

But the companies writing it are not a random sample. Across 3,650 non-financial listed companies, debt exceeds cash at 402 of the 567 companies that mention rising rates (71%), against 1,002 of the 3,083 that do not (33%). By industry, too, real estate and railways stand out. Most of the companies writing it run their business on borrowed money.

That is also where the impact falls. Teikoku Databank estimated in September 2026 that a 0.25-point rise in borrowing rates cuts ordinary profit by 1.9% on average, but by 5.4% in real estate. Real estate companies describe not only their own borrowing costs but also buyers pulling back: Agre Toshi Design warns of slower sales from high home prices and rising rates. Mortgage comparison service MFS writes that, with the shift to a full-fledged rising-rate phase, banks cut their advertising and revenue of its MogeCheck business fell 36.8% year over year.

For Japanese companies as a whole, by contrast, higher rates are not yet a heavy burden. According to Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, corporate interest payments remain low and stable relative to operating profit, and a 0.5-point rise in borrowing rates would add interest costs of about 3% of ordinary profit. Six in ten non-financial listed companies hold more cash than debt. Rising rates squeeze not Japanese companies in general, but the companies that run on borrowed money, and their customers. The growing number of companies adding the risk likely shows that circle slowly widening.

• Source：NHK, BOJ raises policy rate to about 1.25% (September 18, 2026, Japanese)
• Source：Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, corporate interest burden from the Financial Statements Statistics (September 4, 2026, Japanese)
• Source：Teikoku Databank, impact of the BOJ's additional rate hike on companies (September 2026, Japanese, via DIME)

• Scope: listed companies (with a securities code) that filed an annual securities report for the fiscal year. Fiscal year is the year the period ends. Source: annual reports on EDINET (Japan FSA).
• We counted whether the Business Risks section contains 金利上昇, 金利の上昇 or 金利が上昇 (rising interest rates). Mentions that do not say rising, such as 金利変動 (interest rate fluctuations), are not counted.
• FY2026 covers reports filed by October 18, 2026, mostly March year-end companies. December year-end companies are not yet included.
• Disclosure rules changed from March 2020 year-ends, and the risk section got longer (median length 2,272 characters in FY2017, 3,495 in FY2020). Part of the FY2020 jump reflects that.
• AI read each relevant paragraph and assigned one of the five types; a company with several paragraphs can count in several types. Of 30 FY2025 paragraphs checked by a person, 28 were classified reasonably. The two misses put investment-condo buyers' repayment burden under borrowing costs or business partners, so the weaker-demand count may be slightly low.
• The debt-versus-cash comparison uses interest-bearing debt and cash that Katana calculates from each company's latest annual report (excluding the four financial industries).
• The FY2017 company count (3,391) is lower than the actual number of listed companies; some companies that later delisted may be missing.

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