AI screening example · run on November 5, 2026

Stocks with sales lifted by rare-earth curbs,
across all of Japan.

Among Japanese rare-earth stocks, which have already seen sales or demand rise because of China's export controls? AI read the annual reports of 79 companies that mention rare earths and supported 3.

Background

Rare-earth imports fell to a fifth of their 2024 level.

Rare earths are a group of metals used in products such as motor magnets. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium help magnets hold their strength at high temperatures, and their supply has depended on China.

In April 2025, China put seven elements, including heavy rare earths, under export licensing. In January 2026 it tightened export controls on Japan, then added 20 Japanese entities in February and 40 companies and institutions in June.

The impact shows in the numbers. Japan's rare-earth imports in January to June 2026 were around a fifth of the same period in 2024, before the curbs. CNBC reported on November 4 that China's yttrium oxide exports to Japan fell to 4 tonnes in September from 51 tonnes a year earlier.

Alternative supply is coming, but slowly. In March, Sojitz announced a contract under which 75% of Australian producer Lynas's medium and heavy rare-earth output goes to Japan. Lynas's dysprosium and terbium output totaled 23 tonnes in July to September 2026. China reportedly shipped Japan an average of 14 tonnes a month in 2024, or 42 tonnes a quarter. About 50 tonnes of seabed mud were recovered off Minamitorishima in tests in January and February 2026, but the next mining test is in February 2027, with an overall assessment including economics due by March 2028.

Yet some companies have already seen sales rise because of the curbs. Daido Steel's report for April to September 2026 says demand for its magnets free of heavy rare earths stayed strong and magnet revenue rose. ULVAC's orders for magnet vacuum furnaces rose from ¥7.6 billion to ¥18.2 billion in the year ended June 2026.

Hypothesis

Many companies are hurt by the curbs, but could sales be rising at others?

Without rare earths, motors that use magnets cannot be built. Many annual reports describe the curbs as a risk or a reason for production cuts.

But what can no longer be bought from China must be bought elsewhere, or done without. For companies handling supply from outside China, magnets free of heavy rare earths, or equipment for building magnet factories outside China, the curbs themselves create demand.

So we used Katana to read the annual reports of companies that mention rare earths, looking for those whose sales or demand have already risen because of the curbs or the move away from China.

01 / Input

The companies we wanted to find.

“We want companies that make or sell rare-earth materials, magnets or magnet-making equipment, or that trade, refine or recycle rare earths. We want to narrow it to those whose sales or demand have already risen because of China's export controls or the move away from Chinese supply.”

Entered in Japanese; English translation.

We used a word condition to keep the 79 companies whose main annual report sections use terms such as rare earth, turned this profile into two questions entered in English, and had the AI read each report, question by question. Claude ran the judgments with Katana's own judgment system, and we checked the listed companies against the report text. Latest results come from each company's earnings reports and presentations. Judgments and data as of November 5, 2026.

02 / Conditions

The conditions we applied across Japan.

Quantitative

Katana computes its metrics for every company.

Main annual report sections use a rare-earth term: rare earth, neodymium, dysprosium, terbium or Minamitorishima (in Japanese)

Qualitative

AI reads each annual report and judges support and counterevidence.

Does the annual report state that the company itself makes or sells products, equipment or services for rare-earth supply, such as rare-earth materials or compounds, rare-earth magnets or magnets that reduce or avoid heavy rare earths, equipment for making such magnets, or rare-earth trading, refining or recycling? (Do not count companies that only buy rare earths or rare-earth parts as inputs, only mention rare earths as a supply risk, cost or economic factor, or only describe research or future plans.)
Does the annual report state that China's rare-earth export controls, or investment to diversify rare-earth supply away from China, have already increased the company's sales, orders or demand for its rare-earth-related products, equipment or services? (Do not count companies that only describe risks, higher costs, procurement efforts or expected future demand, or whose rare-earth-related sales rose without either of these being given as a reason.)

The questions were entered in English and judged in order.

~3,800listed companies

79match the numbers

3AI judged as supported

Katana

read the filings and supported 3.

03 / Results

3 supported. With 9 that have a rare-earth business but do not say the curbs raised sales, we list 12.

Of 79 companies, 3 were supported, 2 need review and 74 had counterevidence. The 3 supported come first, followed by magnet makers Shin-Etsu Chemical and Toda Kogyo and trading company Alconix.

Daido Steel5471 · Iron & Steel

Says demand for its magnets, which are free of heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, has risen as China tightened export controls, and that magnet revenue increased.Filing ↗A major specialty steel maker. It makes magnets free of heavy rare earths and added a line for EV drive motor magnets in April 2026. It does not disclose magnet sales, but targets ¥50 billion in fiscal 2030 and plans about ¥5 billion in capital spending by 2030.
ULVAC6728 · Electric Appliances

Says equipment for making high-performance magnets did well as capital spending to diversify the rare-earth magnet supply chain got fully under way.Filing ↗A vacuum equipment maker that sells vacuum melting and continuous sintering furnaces to magnet factories. Orders for magnet vacuum furnaces rose 2.4 times to ¥18.2 billion in the year ended June 2026, from ¥7.6 billion. Its target for the next year is ¥20 billion or more.
Iwatani8088 · Wholesale Trade

Says rare-earth sales in its materials business grew as it worked to keep supply stable while China's export controls continued.Filing ↗A trading company known for gases. It has invested in Caremag, a French rare-earth refiner building a plant. It does not disclose a figure for rare earths. Its materials business, which includes them, had sales of ¥218.4 billion in the year ended March 2026, up ¥16.7 billion.
Shin-Etsu Chemical4063 · Chemicals

Says its rare-earth magnets are used in hybrid cars and data center hard drives, and that demand is expected to grow.Filing ↗Judged as having counterevidence. It makes rare-earth magnets, but the report stops at expected demand. It is adding rare-earth refining equipment in Fukui Prefecture, investing at least ¥35 billion, including about ¥17.5 billion from METI.
Toda Kogyo4100 · Chemicals

Says it has established production technology for magnet materials that use more readily available rare earths, without relying on dysprosium.Filing ↗Judged as having counterevidence. A magnet materials maker with a process that does not rely on dysprosium. Its magnet material sales fell last year, however, on tougher competition in China.
Alconix3036 · Wholesale Trade

Says its subsidiary Advanced Material Japan specializes in rare metals including rare earths, handling everything from ore to metal and intermediate materials.Filing ↗Judged as needing review. A nonferrous metals trader whose subsidiary handles rare earths from ore to metal. It does not state a rise from the curbs.

Show the other 6

Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku Kogyo4082 · Chemicals

Says interest in its rare-earth-free materials has risen and the number of customers considering them has grown.Filing ↗Judged as having counterevidence. It makes rare-earth compounds. It says more customers are considering its rare-earth-free materials, while the curbs still affect its own procurement of yttrium and others.
Aichi Steel5482 · Iron & Steel

Says it is developing magnets that use fewer rare earths, as part of METI's economic security push for a stable supply of permanent magnets.Filing ↗Judged as having counterevidence. It sells neodymium bonded magnets. Its magnet that uses fewer rare earths is still in development.
Sojitz2768 · Wholesale Trade

Says it is diversifying the supply chain for critical minerals such as rare earths, given the importance of economic security.Filing ↗Judged as having counterevidence. A general trading company that brings heavy rare earths from Lynas to Japan. Neither the report nor its latest results give a figure.
Toyota Tsusho8015 · Wholesale Trade

Says stable procurement of chips and raw materials such as rare earths has become an issue, making multi-site supply chains essential.Filing ↗Judged as having counterevidence. A general trading company that lists rare earths and rare metals in its business. The report stops at the procurement issue.
ICDA Holdings3184 · Retail Trade

Says its rare-earth recovery business with Mitsubishi Materials is progressing, recovering materials from its own output and from other companies and turning them into products.Filing ↗Judged as having counterevidence. A car dealer in Mie Prefecture whose auto recycling subsidiary works with Mitsubishi Materials to recover rare earths and turn them into products. It does not say the curbs raised sales.
Meiwa8103 · Wholesale Trade

Says rare earths and rare metals did well in its resources and environment business.Filing ↗Judged as having counterevidence. A trading company in the Mitsubishi group that says rare earths and rare metals did well, without giving the curbs as the reason.

Sodick, which needs review, uses magnets in the motors of its own machine tools and does not describe selling them, so it is not listed.

View detailed results

This report is based on annual securities reports as of November 5, 2026.

04 / Takeaway

The tailwind is real. Whether it is big enough to move total sales is another matter.

Demand rising under the curbs is no surprise. What matters is by how much, and how large that is against the whole company. Here are the disclosed figures for the 3 supported companies.

Company	Disclosed figure	Against the whole company
ULVAC	Magnet furnace orders ¥18.2bn (prior year ¥7.6bn)	5.6% of ¥324.2bn orders
Daido Steel	Magnet sales undisclosed; ¥50bn target for FY2030	Even the target is 8.6% of ¥578.1bn revenue
Iwatani	Rare earths undisclosed; materials sales up ¥16.7bn	Even if all rare earths, 1.9% of prior-year ¥883.0bn sales

Only ULVAC gives an amount. Its total orders rose ¥98.7 billion, and magnet vacuum furnaces account for ¥10.6 billion of that, a little over a tenth. Most of the rest is chips and displays. The company does, however, target ¥20 billion or more next year and ¥30 billion or more after that. Against the ¥260 billion in total orders planned for next year, ¥20 billion would be 7.7%.

Daido Steel does not disclose magnet sales. Its functional and magnetic materials segment, which includes magnets, fell 0.6% in the year ended March 2026. It rose 25.2% in April to September 2026, but that includes newly consolidated companies, so it cannot be read as magnet growth. Iwatani's materials business grew sales in the year ended March 2026, but operating profit fell ¥0.1 billion.

Of the 79 companies that use a rare-earth term in their reports, the 12 listed here were judged to have a rare-earth business, and 3 said the curbs or the move away from China had raised sales or demand. Most of the rest mention rare earths as a risk or a reason for production cuts.

Minamitorishima is not yet about sales. The only report describing a product for rare-earth mining is Okamoto Glass's pressure-resistant glass spheres, and that too is written as work ahead. Toa Corporation and Toyo Engineering, often named as related stocks, do not use a rare-earth term in main report sections such as the business description and results. Silence does not mean no involvement. But with the overall assessment due by March 2028, any effect on earnings, for any company, comes after that.

The April 2025 licensing and the controls on Japan remain in place. And supply from outside China is still short: Lynas's entire output is about half of what China shipped Japan in 2024. The tailwind should last for some time. But where amounts can be seen, it has yet to reach a tenth of the whole company. Whether rare earths become an earnings story depends on ULVAC's orders reaching ¥30 billion and Daido Steel's magnets reaching ¥50 billion.

Your stock-picking, handed straight to AI.

Katana narrows companies with its own metrics, and AI reads annual reports to judge qualitative conditions. For complex theses and company profiles, the selection you used to do one company at a time, AI now runs across the Japanese market.

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